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Food Price Trends and Projections in Brazil (2018–2026): Implications for Access to Adequate and Healthy Food

Author

Listed:
  • Thaís Cristina Marquezine Caldeira
  • Bruna Barbosa Furtado
  • Ana Maria Thomaz Maya Martins
  • Laís Amaral Mais
  • Ramon Torres
  • Rafael Moreira Claro

Abstract

This study analyzed post‐COVID‐19 trends in food prices in Brazil and projected changes through 2026. Time series from the 2017/2018 Household Budget Survey, the National System of Consumer Price Indexes, and the Continuous National Household Sample Survey were analyzed using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. Between 2018 and 2024, prices of ultra‐processed food products (UPFP) decreased by 16%, while unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients increased, narrowing the price gap. The nominal prices of food groups rose more than nominal household income between 2018 and 2024, particularly for unprocessed or minimally processed foods and culinary ingredients. Projections indicate that UPFP will remain the cheapest group by 2026, reinforcing barriers to healthy diets and supporting tax policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Thaís Cristina Marquezine Caldeira & Bruna Barbosa Furtado & Ana Maria Thomaz Maya Martins & Laís Amaral Mais & Ramon Torres & Rafael Moreira Claro, 2026. "Food Price Trends and Projections in Brazil (2018–2026): Implications for Access to Adequate and Healthy Food," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(5), pages 1580-1593, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:48:y:2026:i:5:p:1580-1593
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70114
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