IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/apecpp/v47y2025i5p1774-1790.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Surplus to Deficit: Decoding the Fundamental Shift in US Agricultural Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Li
  • Kuan‐Ming Huang
  • Zhengfei Guan
  • Xiaoli Etienne

Abstract

The United States has been the world's largest agricultural exporter, consistently recording substantial surpluses in agricultural trade for decades. However, this landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years, with the US incurring a trade deficit ($1 billion) for the first time in 2019 since the USDA trade statistics became available in 1967. This deficit climbed to a staggering $21 billion in 2023 and continues to grow. This study provides an in‐depth analysis of the shifting US trade patterns from 1985 to 2023, focusing on bilateral agricultural trade with major trade partners and key commodity flows. Structural break analysis is employed to identify significant turning points. Breaks are found in trade with China, Canada, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Australia. Trade with China stands out as the most disrupted, with structural breaks closely aligned with the imposition of retaliatory tariffs during the US–China trade war. No structural breakpoints are detected in US–Mexico agricultural trade. The rapid and consistent growth in imports from Mexico in recent years has been a significant force behind the spiking US agricultural trade deficits. The potential driving factors behind the observed trends and identified structural breaks are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Li & Kuan‐Ming Huang & Zhengfei Guan & Xiaoli Etienne, 2025. "From Surplus to Deficit: Decoding the Fundamental Shift in US Agricultural Trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(5), pages 1774-1790, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:47:y:2025:i:5:p:1774-1790
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70023
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/aepp.70023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:47:y:2025:i:5:p:1774-1790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)2040-5804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.