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Retrenchment as a Screening Mechanism: Power Shifts, Strategic Withdrawal, and Credible Signals

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  • Brandon K. Yoder

Abstract

Both advocates and opponents of retrenchment have treated it as an undesirable, last‐ditch strategy for states that have already experienced severe decline. This article presents a formal model that identifies an unrecognized benefit of retrenchment: It can provide declining states with valuable information about rising states' future intentions. By removing constraints over the behavior of rising states in a particular region, a declining state can induce hostile risers to attempt revision of the regional order. This, in turn, makes a riser's cooperative behavior more credible as a signal of benign intentions, allowing the decliner to oppose hostile types while accommodating benign ones. In contrast to the existing focus on retrenchment as a desperate strategy taken from a position of weakness, this article suggests that the informational benefits of retrenchment are greatest when it is undertaken early, from a position of strength.

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  • Brandon K. Yoder, 2019. "Retrenchment as a Screening Mechanism: Power Shifts, Strategic Withdrawal, and Credible Signals," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 130-145, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:63:y:2019:i:1:p:130-145
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12395
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