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Bankrolling Repression? Modeling Third‐Party Influence on Protests and Repression

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  • Olga V. Chyzh
  • Elena Labzina

Abstract

Ukraine's anti‐government protests in 2013–2014, and the ensuing removal of President Yanukovich, raised much speculation about Russia's role in the outcome of the crisis, as well as more general questions related to third‐party influence on domestic protests and repression. Does third‐party assistance to the government increase the level of government repression or deter protesters? Does the leader removal indicate that foreign involvement was a failure? Or can a third party gain from involvement, even if its protégé leader is removed from power? We model external influence on the onset of protests and repression as a game between the government, the protesters, and a third party that supports the government. The main finding is that a third party may “bankroll” repression against the protesters, even at the risk of the removal of their protégé leader, with the goal of deterring future protests within its sphere of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga V. Chyzh & Elena Labzina, 2018. "Bankrolling Repression? Modeling Third‐Party Influence on Protests and Repression," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(2), pages 312-324, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:2:p:312-324
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12341
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    Cited by:

    1. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2021. "Third-Party Interest, Resource Value, and the Likelihood of Conflict," CSEF Working Papers 631, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 20 Jun 2022.
    2. Colin Hannigan, 2019. "Toward a holistic networks approach to strategic third-party intervention: A literature review," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 277-292, September.

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