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Leader Incentives and Civil War Outcomes

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  • Alyssa K. Prorok

Abstract

This article examines the influence that rebel and state leaders have on civil war outcomes, arguing that incentives to avoid punishment influence their strategic decision making during war. Leaders in civil war face punishment from two sources: internal audiences and opponents. I hypothesize that leaders who bear responsibility for involvement in the war have a higher expectation of punishment from both sources following unfavorable war performance, and thus, have incentives to continue the fight in the hope of turning the tide and avoiding the negative consequences of defeat. These incentives, in turn, make leaders who bear responsibility more likely to fight to an extreme outcome and less likely to make concessions to end the war. These propositions are tested on an original data set identifying all rebel and state leaders in all civil conflict dyads ongoing between 1980 and 2011. Results support the hypothesized relationships between leader responsibility and war outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alyssa K. Prorok, 2016. "Leader Incentives and Civil War Outcomes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(1), pages 70-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:60:y:2016:i:1:p:70-84
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12199
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoff Dancy & Eric Wiebelhaus-Brahm, 2018. "The impact of criminal prosecutions during intrastate conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(1), pages 47-61, January.
    2. Casey Crisman-Cox, 2022. "Democracy, reputation for resolve, and civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 382-394, May.
    3. Dan Reiter & Scott Wolford, 2022. "Gender, sexism, and war 1," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 34(1), pages 59-77, January.
    4. Kirssa Cline Ryckman & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2020. "Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 83-105, January.
    5. Alyssa K Prorok & Deniz Cil, 2022. "Cheap talk or costly commitment? Leader statements and the implementation of civil war peace agreements," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(3), pages 409-424, May.
    6. Benjamin Acosta & Reyko Huang & Daniel Silverman, 2023. "Introducing ROLE: A database of rebel leader attributes in armed conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(2), pages 352-361, March.

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