IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/agribz/v41y2025i4p920-935.html

European Union–Mercosur Accord's Effects on Brazilian Milk Powder

Author

Listed:
  • Krisley Mendes

Abstract

Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur–European Union Biregional Association Agreement provides for the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of nontariff measures between the parties. Because the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. A constant, nested, multisectoral, and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured incorporating uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets. The model allows projecting the price effect (Armington) and the preference effect in the market shares of Brazil, Mercosur, and the EU on the domestic market. The results, in the most ambitious scenario of the agreement and in the most conservative estimate, show that Brazil would lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market. This means reducing Brazilian production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The national agricultural link in this scenario would lose 15% of the current dairy demand. This loss benefits the EU, which would participate in the domestic market with a market share of 58.75%. Mercosur would add 13.41 percentage points to its current share of the Brazilian market.

Suggested Citation

  • Krisley Mendes, 2025. "European Union–Mercosur Accord's Effects on Brazilian Milk Powder," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 920-935, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:920-935
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.21962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21962
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/agr.21962?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Owen, P. Dorian & Winchester, Niven, 2014. "The impact of US fresh milk production standards on dairy trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1008-1021.
    2. John Christopher Beghin & Anne-Célia Disdier & Stéphan Marette, 2017. "Trade restrictiveness indices in the presence of externalities: An application to non-tariff measures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John Christopher Beghin (ed.), Nontariff Measures and International Trade, chapter 5, pages 81-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, January.
    4. Imre Fertő & Zoltán Bakucs & Jan Fałkowski, 2021. "Dairy sector trade dynamics: Some insights on the evolution of trade linkages within the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 698-711, September.
    5. Ross Hallren & Alexandra Opanasets, 2018. "Whence the Beef: The Effect of Repealing Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) Using a Vertically Integrated Armington Model with Monte Carlo Simulation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(3), pages 879-897, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antoine Bouët & Aziz Elbehri & Duc Bao Nguyen & Fousseini Traoré, 2022. "Measuring Agricultural Trade Integration in Southeast Asia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 235-266.
    2. Mahdi Ghodsi, 2024. "Regulatory convergence within technical barriers to trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1870-1915, May.
    3. Mahdi Ghodsi & Robert Stehrer, 2022. "Trade policy and global value chains: tariffs versus non-tariff measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(3), pages 887-916, August.
    4. Grant, Jason & Arita, Shawn, "undated". "Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary Measures: Assessment, Measurement, and Impact," Commissioned Papers 259417, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Kee, Hiau Looi & Xie, Enze, 2024. "Trade Policies Mix and Match : Theory and Global Evidence, with the Sino-EU Battery Electric Vehicle Dispute as an Illustrative Application," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10855, The World Bank.
    6. Olper, Alessandro, . "The political economy of trade-related regulatory policy: environment and global value chain," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 5(3).
    7. Ghodsi, Mahdi, 2023. "Exploring the ‘non-tariff measures black box’: Whose regulatory NTMs on which products improve the imported quality?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 45-67.
    8. Olivier Cadot & Julien Gourdon, 2016. "Non-tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, and prices: new evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 227-249, May.
    9. John C. Beghin & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Alexandre Gohin, 2017. "The Impact of an EU–US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 321-344, June.
    10. Maria Cipollina & Federica Demaria, 2020. "The Trade Effect of the EU’s Preference Margins and Non-Tariff Barriers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, September.
    11. Beghin, John C. & Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Gohin, Alex, 2014. "The Impact of an EU-US TTIP Agreement on Biofuel and Feedstock Markets," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197153, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    12. Cosimo Beverelli & Mauro Boffa & Alexander Keck, 2019. "Trade policy substitution: theory and evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 755-783, November.
    13. Soon, Byung Min & Thompson, Wyatt, 2020. "Non-tariff barrier on chicken imports into Russia: Impact on production, trade and prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 583-596.
    14. Annalisa Zezza & Federica Demaria & Maria Rosaria Pupo d'Andrea & Jo Swinnen & Giulia Meloni & Senne Vandevelde & Alessandro Olper & Daniele Curzi & Valentina Raimondi & Sophie Drogue, 2018. "Research for AGRI Committee - Agricultural trade: assessing reciprocity of standards," Working Papers hal-02787948, HAL.
    15. Oleksandr Shepotylo & Volodymyr Vakhitov & Veronika Movchan & Mariia Panga, 2022. "Non‐tariff measures and productivity of Ukrainian food‐processing firms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 234-256, February.
    16. Leudjou, Roland, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of eliminating Non-Tariff Barriers in the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Cameroons economy," Conference papers 330231, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Julien Gooris & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2015. "Which import restrictions matter for trade in services ?," Working Papers 2015-33, CEPII research center.
    18. Sudeshna Chattopadhyay, 2019. "Index of Non-tariff Measures: A Study of the EU Textile and Garment Market," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 206-223, August.
    19. Irfan Aleem & Bushra Faizi, 2021. "Non-tariff Measures, Overall Protection and Export Competitiveness: Evidence from Pakistan and Regional Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 251-282.
    20. Lars Nilsson, 2019. "Reflections on the economic modelling of free trade agreements," DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes 2019-2, Directorate General for Trade, European Commission.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:920-935. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.