Cyclical Stabilisation, But No Robust Upturn. Economic Outlook for 2010 and 2011
In 2009, the Austrian economy contracted by 3.4 percent in volume. Goods exports, manufacturing output and investment in business equipment fell particularly strongly, while private consumption proved resilient, edging up slightly. Driven by the expansionary monetary and fiscal policy stance adopted worldwide, the downward trend of activity turned around as of mid-2009, with Austrian exports and industrial output picking up. The recovery is set to continue over the next few quarters, allowing real GDP to grow by 1.5 percent in 2010. However, the still low capacity utilisation will hardly provide incentives for higher investment in the short run. In a first outlook on 2011, real GDP growth is projected at 1.6 percent. The momentum of growth in 2010 and 2011 will be too weak to prevent unemployment from rising. According to national definitions, unemployment in 2011 will reach 8.1 percent of the dependent labour force, the highest rate since 1953. The general government balance will markedly deteriorate under the impact of automatic stabilisers, notably those affecting revenues, and the budgetary cost of the fiscal stimulus programmes. For 2010, a deficit amounting to 5.2 percent of GDP is expected.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 15 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2010:i:1:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.