IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Cyclical Recovery in Danger of Stalling. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005

Listed author(s):
  • Markus Marterbauer


Growth of real GDP is set to accelerate from 0.7 percent in 2003 to 1.5 percent this year. From the middle to the end of last year, the business climate in the cyclically sensitive manufacturing sector has steadily improved, although since the beginning of 2004 firms have turned more sceptical as to their short-term output expectations. WIFO therefore assumes that the recovery in industry will make only slow progress. While the expansionary forces are gaining ground in the world economy, they are only partly transmitted to the euro area because of the high euro exchange rate and the sluggishness of internal demand. In Austria, business activity will be sustained by domestic demand. Construction is booming in 2004, and in 2005 private consumption growth may rise above its long-term trend, for the first time in four years. Cuts in direct taxes will strengthen disposable incomes markedly. Against the background of a sizeable increase in labour supply, the small gains in the number of economically active will not prevent unemployment from rising further. On annual average 2005, the jobless figure will be close to 250,000.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: Payment required

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by WIFO in its journal Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 9 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 43-53

in new window

Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2004:i:2:p:43-53
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien

Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2004:i:2:p:43-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.