IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/wquart/y2004i1p1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Business Cycle Recovery Gaining Shape. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005

Author

Listed:
  • Markus Marterbauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Economic growth in Austria is set to accelerate to 1.7 percent in real terms in 2004 and 2.4 percent in 2005. The major incentives for the moderate recovery are coming from the revival of world trade. A vigorous economic upturn has come under way in the USA and in Asia; spill-over effects to Europe will, however, be dampened by the appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the dollar. In Austria, several indicators point to a pick-up in merchandise exports and manufacturing output. Growth of private household spending is reverting only gradually to its long-term trend. Domestic demand is sustained primarily by lively activity in civil engineering and a rebound of residential building. The cyclical recovery will not lead to a turnaround on the labour market towards lower unemployment, because of a marked increase in foreign labour supply. The improvement in private incomes and employment will boost tax revenues and narrow the general government deficit. The present projections make no allowance for tax cuts envisaged for 2005, which would lead to higher GDP growth and a higher budget deficit than presented in the baseline scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Marterbauer, 2004. "Business Cycle Recovery Gaining Shape. Economic Outlook for 2004 and 2005," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2004:i:1:p:1-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/24811
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
    4. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
    5. Flam, Harry, 1995. "From EEA to EU: Economic consequences for the EFTA countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 457-466, April.
    6. Mariassunta Giannetti & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Marco Pagano, 2002. "Financial Market Integration, Corporate Financing and Economic Growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 179, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
    8. Franz Sinabell & Erwin Schmid, 2003. "Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy and its Impact on the Austrian Agricultural Sector," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 76(6), pages 425-440, June.
    9. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta, 2003. "Regulation, productivity and growth: OECD evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(36), pages 9-72, April.
    10. Ranil M Salgado, 2002. "Impact of Structural Reformson Productivity Growth in Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/10, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ari Kokko, 1994. "Sweden: Effects of EU Membership on Investment and Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 667-677, September.
    12. Haaland, Jan I., 1993. "Welfare Effects of `1992': A General Equilibrium Assessment for EC and EFTA Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2004:i:1:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.