IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Business Cycle Upturn not in Sight. Economic Outlook for 2003 and 2004

Listed author(s):
  • Markus Marterbauer


The Austrian economy is suffering from persistently weak overall demand. Thus, GDP will expand by only 0.7 percent this year; a tentative projection for 2004 suggests a growth rate of 1.2 percent. Merchandise export growth is currently losing momentum, because of sluggish activity in key trading partner countries and the (mostly indirect) effects of the depreciation of the dollar vis-à-vis the euro. For 2004, the international economic environment does not look significantly more favourable for a cyclical upturn to take hold. Low capacity utilisation and subdued sales expectations weigh on corporate investment plans. The investment-to-GDP ratio has fallen markedly since 2000, and manufacturing output may still not pick up this year. Private consumption is rising but slowly, as disposable incomes post only modest gains and the saving ratio is seen heading up. Only the construction sector shows clear signs of recovery after several years of adverse development. The extended period of slow growth, accompanied by a strong increase in labour supply, is leading to a further rise in unemployment. In 2004, the jobless rate will rise to 7.1 percent of the dependent labour force or 4.4 percent according to Eurostat definitions. Negative cyclical effects will also show up in government households, with the general government deficit edging up to 1.2 percent of GDP. The strong euro exchange rate is dampening inflation; the projected headline inflation of 1.3 percent confirms that a high degree of price stability will be maintained.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: Payment required

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by WIFO in its journal Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 8 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 71-83

in new window

Handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2003:i:3:p:71-83
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien

Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wquart:y:2003:i:3:p:71-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.