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Kompensation hoher Wertschöpfungseinbußen. Prognose für 2020 bis 2022

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  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan

Abstract

Die Konjunktur erholte sich im Sommer 2020 in Österreich auch im internationalen Vergleich außerordentlich kräftig. Der zweite Lockdown drückt die Wirtschaftsaktivität 2020 wieder, aber – da die Industrie weniger betroffen ist – schwächer als der erste. Insgesamt sank das reale BIP 2020 um 7,3%, und die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg trotz der Inanspruchnahme der COVID-19-Kurzarbeit um ein Drittel. Ohne weiteren Lockdown ("No Policy Change") dürfte das BIP 2021 um 4,5% wachsen, mit einem dritten Lockdown um 2,5%. Insbesondere der Wintertourismus wird aufgrund der anhaltenden Reisewarnungen in der bevorstehenden Saison empfindlich eingeschränkt bzw. fällt aus. Erst in der wärmeren Jahreszeit und mit der Durchimpfung der Bevölkerung können sich die gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten wieder normalisieren. Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt 2022 jedenfalls über dem Vorkrisenniveau.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2021. "Kompensation hoher Wertschöpfungseinbußen. Prognose für 2020 bis 2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(1), pages 25-38, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2021:i:1:p:25-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Badelt, 2021. "Austria's Economic Policy in the Time of COVID-19 and Beyond. An Assessment at the Turn of the Year 2020-21," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 1, January.

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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose;

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