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Vierte COVID 19-Welle bremst kräftigen Aufschwung. Prognose für 2021

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  • Stefan Schiman

Abstract

Die Wertschöpfung in Österreich wuchs im II. Quartal 2021 insbesondere in den krisengeschüttelten Branchen deutlich. Mit der Zunahme des Infektionsgeschehens ab August 2021 schwächte sich das Wachstum aber wieder ab. Die neuerliche COVID 19-Welle wird den Aufholprozess in bestimmten Dienstleistungsbranchen im IV. Quartal abermals dämpfen. Der Konjunkturaufschwung verläuft demnach sektoral heterogen, ist jedoch insgesamt äußerst kräftig. Auch der Arbeitsmarkt erholt sich zügig, wird durch die vierte COVID 19-Welle aber vorübergehend einen Rückschlag erleiden. Zugleich wird sich der Preisauftrieb weiter beschleunigen, während die Geldpolitik – der neuen Strategie der EZB entsprechend – expansiv bleibt. Die 2022 in Kraft tretende Steuerreform wird in der vorliegenden Prognose nicht berücksichtigt. Der Prognosezeitraum umfasst daher nur das Jahr 2021.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman, 2021. "Vierte COVID 19-Welle bremst kräftigen Aufschwung. Prognose für 2021," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(10), pages 695-709, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2021:i:10:p:695-709
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Marian Fink & Hans Pitlik & Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2021. "Strong Private Consumption Spurs Economic Growth. Medium-term Forecast of the Austrian Economy 2022 to 2026 Including the Tax Reform 2022 2024," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 13, November.

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    Keywords

    Konjunkturbericht; Konjunkturprognose;

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