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Wirtschaft in Osteuropa trotz weltweiter Konjunktureintrübung expansiv

Author

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  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

Abstract

Die Konjunktur kühlt sich in den mittel-, ost- und südosteuropäischen Ländern (MOSOEL) zwar ab, aber viel weniger als im Frühjahr erwartet: Die Prognosen für 2019 wurden für die Mehrheit der Länder nach oben korrigiert. Vor allem in der EU-MOEL-Region hat sich das Wachstum vom Abschwung im Euro-Raum recht deutlich abgekoppelt. In mehreren Ländern mehren sich sogar die Anzeichen einer Überhitzung, die allerdings nur in Rumänien Anlass zur Sorge gibt. Die Westbalkanländer profitieren von den steigenden FDI-Zuflüssen, mehrere GUS-Länder von der expansiven Fiskalpolitik. In Russland dagegen brachte der restriktive fiskalpolitische Kurs die Wirtschaft an den Rand einer Rezession. Die Wirtschaftskrise in der Türkei erwies sich zwar als tiefer als erwartet, dürfte aber spätestens 2020 überwunden sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov, 2019. "Wirtschaft in Osteuropa trotz weltweiter Konjunktureintrübung expansiv," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 92(7), pages 509-520, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2019:i:7:p:509-520
    Note: With English abstract.
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