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Slow Recovery of Domestic Demand as a Mid-term Prospect. Forecast for the Austrian Economy up to 2009

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Baumgartner

    (WIFO)

  • Serguei Kaniovski

    (WIFO)

  • Markus Marterbauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Economic growth in Austria could accelerate to 2.3 percent annually in real terms over the next five years. At such a pace, the average growth rate would thus be significantly higher than in 1999–2004 (+1.6 percent). The chief momentum comes from exports. Domestic enterprises should profit substantially from brisk global trade, due to their excellent competitiveness on prices. As a prerequisite for accelerated growth, weak consumer demand and sluggish construction investment will need to be overcome. The labour market, however, will not really benefit from the recovery. Due to the rapid rise of the labour supply, unemployment will continue to grow up to 2009. Inflation, on the other hand, will remain muted. Assuming steady economic growth and a policy of restrictive expenditure, the national budget deficit should be cut to some 0.5 percent of GDP by 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Markus Marterbauer, 2005. "Slow Recovery of Domestic Demand as a Mid-term Prospect. Forecast for the Austrian Economy up to 2009," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 78(5), pages 339-351, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2005:i:5:p:339-351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    2. Wolfgang Pollan, 2002. "Zur Messung der Verbraucherpreise in Österreich. Lebenshaltungskostenindex oder Preisindex?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(12), pages 775-787, December.
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    Keywords

    Mittelfristprognose Österreich 2009;

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