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Erhöhte Konjunkturrisken. Prognose für 2005 und 2006

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Scheiblecker

    (WIFO)

  • Ewald Walterskirchen

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Wachstumsprognosen für 2005 und 2006 bleiben unverändert, aber das Risiko einer ungünstigeren Entwicklung ist größer geworden. Der weitere Konjunkturverlauf ist im Euro-Raum unsicher, da die Export- und Gewinnsteigerungen bisher noch nicht die erwartete Ausweitung von Investitionen und privatem Konsum auslösten. Der hohe Rohölpreis bildet einen weiteren Risikofaktor. In Österreich wird sich die Wirtschaft dank positiver Impulse von der Steuerreform günstiger entwickeln als im Euro-Raum. Sie dürfte 2005 und 2006 um jeweils etwa 2¼% wachsen. Das wird nicht ausreichen, um die Arbeitslosenquote zu senken, da das Arbeitskräfteangebot außerordentlich stark steigt.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Scheiblecker & Ewald Walterskirchen, 2005. "Erhöhte Konjunkturrisken. Prognose für 2005 und 2006," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 78(4), pages 195-206, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2005:i:4:p:195-206
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    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose Österreich;

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