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Erholung in den Industrieländern, kräftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen Ländergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008

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  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

Das mittelfristige Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft wird sich merklich beschleunigen. Zwischen 2003 und 2008 dürften das Welt-BIP um durchschnittlich 4,0% pro Jahr und der Welthandel um 6,1% pro Jahr expandieren. Die höchste Expansionsrate werden die Entwicklungsländer (ohne Erdölproduzenten) erreichen (+5,6%) vor den früheren Planwirtschaften (+4,7%) und den erdölexportierenden Entwicklungsländern (+3,9%). Die Industrieländer dürften die Produktion mit +2,5% pro Jahr kaum stärker steigern als zwischen 1997 und 2003. In den USA wird die Wirtschaft weiterhin rascher wachsen als in der erweiterten EU (+2,9% gegenüber +2,3%). Innerhalb der EU 25 erreichen die Beitrittsländer die höchste Dynamik (+3,5%), Deutschland bleibt Nachzügler (+1,8%).

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2004. "Erholung in den Industrieländern, kräftige Wachstumsbeschleunigung in den anderen Ländergruppen. Mittelfristige Prognose der Weltwirtschaft bis 2008," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 77(2), pages 99-107, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2004:i:2:p:99-107
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    Mittelfristprognose Weltwirtschaft;

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