IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

CEECs on Track for Economic Growth

Listed author(s):
  • Josef Pöschl

    (The Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies)

More or less all Central and East European transition countries (CEECs) experienced an economic downturn in 1998, which bottomed out in the winter of 1998-99. Year-on-year GDP data point to decelerated growth in the fourth quarter 1998 and in the first quarter 1999 in a smaller subgroup (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) and GDP decline in others (the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Russia). In nearly all CEECs the situation improved in the course of 1999. In Russia, the currency crisis of August 1998 led to substantial depreciation, which in 1999 stimulated domestic production. Regional trading partners of Russia (the Baltic states, Ukraine and to a lesser degree also Bulgaria and Poland) started to recover from the breakdown of Russian demand for their exports. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia profited from an improving business climate in Germany, their most important trading partner. Home-made policies supported the upswing – especially a decline in interest rates in most of the countries, which also helped to keep real currency appreciation moderate. Inflation increased somewhat in the CEECs with lower inflation rates when world market prices for oil started to rise. Inflation in the CEECs is not expected to come down to Western European levels in the immediate future, a fact which will make it difficult to find an adequate interest rate policy. The degree of economic inequality between CEECs is remarkable. Thus, differences in the per capita GDP are greater in these countries than in the EU. In addition, price levels, recalculated in USD terms, are more divergent between them than between western countries. The year 2000 could become the first year in which CEE economies record no negative GDP growth rates. Even Russia has at last entered a path towards growth. Next year, growth could even strengthen and the more successful countries (currently Hungary, Poland and Slovenia) may be able to lower their income gap relative to the EU.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/19238
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: Payment required

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by WIFO in its journal WIFO-Monatsberichte.

Volume (Year): 73 (2000)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Pages: 329-340

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:5:p:329-340
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Arsenal Object 20, A-1030 Wien

Phone: (+43 1) 798 26 01-0
Fax: (+43 1) 798 93 86
Web page: http://www.wifo.ac.at/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Austrian Institute of Economic Research Publikationsverkauf und Abonnentenbetreuung Arsenal, Objekt 20 A-1030 Vienna/Austria
Email:


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2000:i:5:p:329-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.