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Interest Rates as Leading Business Cycle Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Albert Jaeger

    (WIFO)

Abstract

The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is an excellent leading indicator of business-cycle fluctuations in Austria and Germany. A negative spread signals a slowdown in future growth; a positive spread indicates improved growth prospects. This finding may serve to substantially improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Jaeger, 1992. "Interest Rates as Leading Business Cycle Indicators," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 65(5), pages 286-290, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:1992:i:5:p:286-290
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