Interest Rates as Leading Business Cycle Indicators
The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is an excellent leading indicator of business-cycle fluctuations in Austria and Germany. A negative spread signals a slowdown in future growth; a positive spread indicates improved growth prospects. This finding may serve to substantially improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasts.
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Volume (Year): 65 (1992)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
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