There Will Be Growth in the Spring
Forecasters are currently echoing Chauncey Gardnerâ€™s words that â€œThere will be growth in the springâ€. Or certainly by the summer. Are such forecasts credible? Yes. This article presents evidence that private sector forecasters have done a reasonably good job of forecasting recoveries in industrialised countries over the 1990s. Since recessions in these countries have tended to last under a year, forecasting a recovery in the following year has turned out to be a pretty good bet. However, a few recessions do end up lasting longer than a year: when that happens, the evidence suggests that forecasters are caught flat-footed.
Volume (Year): 3 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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