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South East Europe Six: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms


  • Bogetic, Zeljko

    () (World Bank)


This note discusses the external environment, economic outlook, and key policy challenges for the six South East European Countries (SEE6)—Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia—as they seek to reignite economic recovery. After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group, SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. The rise in unemployment continues to threaten the social fabric. Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat. Nonperforming loans (NPLs)—thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago—are again on the rise. As a result, both within and outside the region, the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth have become more difficult to make. To overcome these challenges, SEE6 countries need more intensive policy reform to reduce public debt and accelerate structural reforms, especially in fiscal consolidation and the financial sector, labor markets, and business environment. Additional external financing from international financial institutions (IFIs) for growth and jobs could prove effective, but only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Bogetic, Zeljko, 2013. "South East Europe Six: From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 103, pages 1-6, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep103

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ghani, Ejaz & Kharas, Homi, 2010. "The Service Revolution," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 14, pages 1-5, May.
    2. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    4. Olivier Cattaneo & Michael Engman & Sebastián Sáez & Robert M. Stern, 2010. "International Trade in Services : New Trends and Opportunities for Developing Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2476, June.
    5. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    6. Nyahoho Emmanuel, 2010. "Determinants of Comparative Advantage in the International Trade of Services: An Empirical Study of the Hecksher-Ohlin Approach," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Hoekman, Bernard & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2008. "Services trade and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4461, The World Bank.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt


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