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Zašto će evro postati rival dolaru

Author

Listed:
  • Menzie Chinn
  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

Evro je izrastao u kredibilnog potencijalnog konkurenta dolaru kao vodećoj međunarodnoj valuti, baš kao što je dolar pretekao britansku funtu pre 70 godina. Ovaj rad koristi ekonometrijski ocenjene determinante udela najvažnijih valuta u deviznim rezervama svetskih banaka širom sveta. Značajni faktori su: veličina zemlje, stopa prinosa, i likvidnost relevantnog domaćeg finansijskog centra (merena obrtom na deviznom tržištu). Postoji prelomni trenutak, ali promene se osećaju tek znatno kasnije (ocena pondera na prošlogodišnji valutni udeo je otprilike 0.9). Van uzorka, naš model je precizno predvideo smanjenje jaza između dolara i evra u periodu od 1999. do 2007. godine. Rad ažurira ove kalkulacije u pogledu budućih scenarija. Isključujemo scenario po kom se Velika Britanija priključuje evro zoni. Međutim, uzimamo u obzir da je London ipak postao de facto finansijski centar evra, više nego Frankfurt. Takođe uzimamo za pretpostavku da dolar nastavlja depresijaciju po trend stopi koju je u proseku pokazao u poslednjih 20 godina. Zaključak je da evro može preuzeti od dolara ulogu vodeće međunarodne valute već 2015. godine. Ključne reči: Devizno tržište, Evro, Dolar, Rezervna valuta.JEL: E42, F0, F02, F31.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2008. "Zašto će evro postati rival dolaru," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 255-278.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:55:y:2008:i:3:p:255-278:id:251
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    Keywords

    Devizno tržište; Evro; Dolar; Rezervna valuta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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