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Inclusion of Deprivation in Endemic-Epidemic Models

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar
  • Svenn-Erik Mamelund
  • Gerardo Chowell

Abstract

Deprivation amplification theory suggests that the health effects of individual deprivation are amplified for people who live in areas with greater levels of deprivation. We postulate that health (represented by norovirus incidence) is influenced and amplified by deprivation (a measure that includes socio-economic factors), and believe that this association has been neglected in surveillance models of infectious diseases. We construct a social epidemiological extension of a known surveillance model to evaluate the inclusion of deprivation in surveillance models using the German Index of Socio-economic Deprivation (GISD) in an endemic-epidemic model. We evaluate model types considered in the literature on the basis of Akaike’s information criterion. Our results suggest that a social epidemiological endemic-epidemic model with the GISD for enterically transmitted infections does not need to also include time-varying contact matrices as transmission weights.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar & Svenn-Erik Mamelund & Gerardo Chowell, 2025. "Inclusion of Deprivation in Endemic-Epidemic Models," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 23(1), pages 175-206.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:23:y:2025:i:1:oid:0x00408737
    DOI: 10.1553/p-4b4e-mkcd
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Junyi Lu & Sebastian Meyer, 2020. "Forecasting Flu Activity in the United States: Benchmarking an Endemic-Epidemic Beta Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-13, February.
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