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Structural Gravity and Transport Policy Analysis: A Methodological Proposal with an Illustrative Application

Author

Listed:
  • P. Delle Site

    (Department of Engineering – Niccolò Cusano University)

  • T. Krishnamurthy

    (Department of Engineering – Niccolò Cusano University)

  • Q. Zhang

    (Department of Engineering – Niccolò Cusano University)

  • B. Gonzalez Hernandez

    (Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering (DICEA) – Federico II University of Naples.)

  • L. Persia

    (Department of Civil, Building and Environmental Engineering – La Sapienza University of Rome)

  • D.S. Usami

    (Department of Civil, Building and Environmental Engineering – La Sapienza University of Rome)

Abstract

The economic-theory-founded structural gravity model is used extensively for international trade analysis. Its use for transport policy analysis within decision support systems related to goods mobility represents a new approach. Choices of buy and sell markets are intertwined with choices regarding the transport mode chain, namely road only, road and rail, road and sea, road and air. The paper proposes a methodology to provide aggregate and mode chain-specific trade flows, with application to Italy. Route choice and network models provide travel time and shipment price estimates. Logit is used for mode chain choices. The transport variable entering gravity is the expectation of the shipment price reflecting maximum utility across mode chains. Input-output tables provide the production and expenditure of Italian NUTS3 zones. Gravity and mode chain choice models are estimated jointly via nonlinear least squares using Eurostat national and international traffic data. The illustrative counterfactual relates to a national railway terminal project. Results of a scenario analysis for dry bulk goods are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Delle Site & T. Krishnamurthy & Q. Zhang & B. Gonzalez Hernandez & L. Persia & D.S. Usami, 2026. "Structural Gravity and Transport Policy Analysis: A Methodological Proposal with an Illustrative Application," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 134(2), pages 127-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:vep:journl:y:2026:v:134:i:2:p:127-153
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    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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