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Vehicle Fleet Trends and Non-linear Ownership Elasticity in Bolivia, 2000-2035

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann

    (Full Fellow Member at ABCE and Senior Associate Researcher at INESAD)

  • Alejandra Teran Orsini

    (Junior Researcher at INESAD)

  • Andrés Escobar Espinoza

    (Associate Professor of Economics at Universidad de Cartagena (Colombia) and a researcher in the Economics, Science & Society Research Group at the same institution, as well as a Fellow Member at the Bolivian Academy of Economic Sciences (ABCE))

Abstract

This paper analyses the evolution of the Bolivian vehicle stock in the medium term, as well as policy implications. First, we analyse the relationship between income and vehicle ownership in Bolivia during the 1970-2017 period, using robust econometric techniques. Based on these results, we use an energy-mix accounting model in GAMS to analyse how the vehicle fleet and the associated demand for gasoline, natural gas and diesel oil evolved over time. Our results show that the relationship between vehicle ownership and per capita income is highly non-linear, with a strong increase in the vehicle fleet over the last decade. Without an energy policy or any energy-efficiency measures for the transport sector, the consumption of derivatives is expected to increase by 6.9 times and the total emissions of CO2eq are expected increase by 7.93 times in the 2000-2035 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandra Teran Orsini & Andrés Escobar Espinoza, 2023. "Vehicle Fleet Trends and Non-linear Ownership Elasticity in Bolivia, 2000-2035," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 131(4), pages 429-458.
    • Handle: RePEc:vep:journl:y:2023:v:131:i:4:p:429-458
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    car ownership; integrated energy-transport modelling; energy-mix; emissions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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