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Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling of Default Events Sequence in a Closed Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Ihor Voloshyn

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

By sequentially examining the full chain of events starting from the default of firms through the fire-sale of goods towards the write-offs of bad loans, we develop a new matrix of financial transactions. This matrix is incorporated into the transactions-flows matrix of the closed economy consisting of households, firms, and banks. On the basis of the balance sheet and transactions-flows matrices, this study further constructs a stock-flow consistent model of the closed economy. We also provide the results of a numerical simulation and argue that our model allows studying how such key parameters as the probability of default, the rate of fire-sales (new injected parameter), the recovery rate, and interest rates on loans and deposits affect the performance of banks and firms, observing economic dynamics in time.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihor Voloshyn, 2017. "Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling of Default Events Sequence in a Closed Economy," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 239, pages 55-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2017:i:239:p:55-65
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2017.239.055
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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2017/239/03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Closed economy; stock-flow consistent framework; probability of default; fire-sales; write-offs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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