IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jlawec/doi10.1086-725590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political Discretion and Antitrust Policy: Evidence from the Assassination of President McKinley

Author

Listed:
  • Richard B. Baker
  • Carola Frydman
  • Eric Hilt

Abstract

We analyze the response of asset prices to the assassination of President William McKinley in 1901. During his term in office, the largest wave of merger activity in American history occurred, yet McKinley did not attempt to enforce the Sherman Act against the firms. By contrast, his vice president, Theodore Roosevelt, was known to be interested in restraining corporate combinations. We find that firms that had engaged in mergers saw greater declines in their abnormal returns following McKinley’s assassination. We also study the market’s response to the first antitrust suit initiated by Roosevelt once he took office and find similar patterns, which confirms the importance of antitrust enforcement in the response of asset prices. Roosevelt’s accession caused a significant change in the approach to antitrust, not from new legislation but from more aggressive enforcement of existing law.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard B. Baker & Carola Frydman & Eric Hilt, 2023. "Political Discretion and Antitrust Policy: Evidence from the Assassination of President McKinley," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 837-873.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/725590
    DOI: 10.1086/725590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/725590
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/725590
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/725590?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bittlingmayer, George, 1993. "The Stock Market and Early Antitrust Enforcement," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(1), pages 1-32, April.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Lawrence F Katz & Christina Patterson & John Van Reenen, 2020. "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms [“Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 645-709.
    3. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2009. "Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 55-87, July.
    5. Cerqueiro, Geraldo & Degryse, Hans & Ongena, Steven, 2011. "Rules versus discretion in loan rate setting," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 503-529, October.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 2018. "New Evidence on the Markup of Prices over Marginal Costs and the Role of Mega-Firms in the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 24574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eckbo, B Espen & Wier, Peggy, 1985. "Antimerger Policy under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act: A Reexamination of the Market Power Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 119-149, April.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Michael R. Haines & Matthew S. Jaremski & David Leblang, 2017. "Populists at the Polls: Economic Factors in the 1896 Presidential Election," NBER Working Papers 23932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bittlingmayer, George, 1985. "Did Antitrust Policy Cause the Great Merger Wave?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 77-118, April.
    10. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    11. Hauck, Achim & Vollmer, Uwe, 2013. "Emergency liquidity provision to public banks: Rules versus discretion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 193-204.
    12. Rosa M Lastra, 2013. "Defining forward looking, judgement-based supervision," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3-4), pages 221-227, July.
    13. Fisman David & Fisman Raymond J. & Galef Julia & Khurana Rakesh & Wang Yongxiang, 2012. "Estimating the Value of Connections to Vice-President Cheney," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    15. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    16. William E. Kovacic & Carl Shapiro, 2000. "Antitrust Policy: A Century of Economic and Legal Thinking," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 43-60, Winter.
    17. George L. Mullin & Joseph C. Mullin & Wallace P. Mullin, 1995. "The Competitive Effects of Mergers: Stock Market Evidence from the U.S. Steel Dissolution Suit," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 26(2), pages 314-330, Summer.
    18. Ralph L. Nelson, 1959. "Merger Movements in American Industry, 1895-1956," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number nels59-1, March.
    19. Robin A. Prager, 1992. "The Effects of Horizontal Mergers on Competition: The Case of the Northern Securities Company," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(1), pages 123-133, Spring.
    20. Shapiro, Carl, 2018. "Antitrust in a time of populism," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 714-748.
    21. Burns, Malcolm R, 1977. "The Competitive Effects of Trust-Busting: A Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 717-739, August.
    22. Binder, John J, 1988. "The Sherman Antitrust Act and the Railroad Cartels," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 443-468, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariotti, Sergio & Marzano, Riccardo, 2021. "The effects of competition policy, regulatory quality and trust on inward FDI in host countries," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Cichello & Douglas Lamdin, 2006. "Event Studies and the Analysis of Antitrust," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 229-245.
    2. Babina, Tania & Barkai, Simcha & Jeffers, Jessica & Karger, Ezra & Volkova, Ekaterina, 2023. "Antitrust enforcement increases economic activity," Working Papers 332, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    3. Günster, Andrea & van Dijk, Mathijs, 2016. "The impact of European antitrust policy: Evidence from the stock market," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-33.
    4. Hackbarth, Dirk & Taub, Bart, 2018. "Does the Potential to Merge Reduce Competition?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Díez, Federico J. & Fan, Jiayue & Villegas-Sánchez, Carolina, 2021. "Global declining competition?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Machin, Stephen & Bell, Brian & Bukowski, Pawel, 2018. "Rent Sharing and Inclusive Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 13408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Herve Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2019. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 173-255.
    8. Robert Feinberg & Richard Harper, 1999. "Regime Effects of EU Market Integration Policies on the UK Financial Sector," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(4), pages 357-365, December.
    9. Steven Berry & Martin Gaynor & Fiona Scott Morton, 2019. "Do Increasing Markups Matter? Lessons from Empirical Industrial Organization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 44-68, Summer.
    10. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Robbins, Jacob A. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2021. "Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 19-38.
    11. Filip Abraham & Yannick Bormans & Jozef Konings & Werner Roeger, 2020. "Price-cost margins and fixed costs," Working Papers 202010, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    12. Joze Damijan & Jozef Konings & Aigerim Yergabulova, 2020. "Increasing market power in Slovenia: Role of diverging trends between exporters and non‐exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1327-1345, May.
    13. Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2022. "Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 193-221, January.
    14. Mathy, Gabriel & Ziebarth, Nicolas L., 2017. "How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 90-126, March.
    15. van Heuvelen, Gerrit Hugo & Bettendorf, Leon & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2021. "Markups in a dual labour market: The case of the Netherlands," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Mr. Federico J Diez & Jiayue Fan & Carolina Villegas-Sánchez, 2019. "Global Declining Competition," IMF Working Papers 2019/082, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    18. Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Jooste,Charl & Vostroknutova,Ekaterina, 2021. "Identification Properties for Estimating the Impact of Regulation on Markups and Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9523, The World Bank.
    19. Mr. Federico J Diez & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Suchanan Tambunlertchai, 2018. "Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Working Papers 2018/137, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Feijoo Moreira, Sergio, 2022. "Inside the decline of the labor share: Technical change, market power, and structural change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N41 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N81 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/725590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JLE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.