How Political Identity Influences COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Model of Identity-Based Risk Perception

Past research suggests that conservatives are usually more threat-sensitive than liberals are. Yet during the COVID-19 pandemic, conservatives consistently underestimated the risk from the virus. To reconcile this paradox, we introduce a model of identity-based risk perception (IRP). This model posits that risk perceptions depend not only on objective risk but also on people’s political identity and whether the risk pertains to their group identity (group risk) versus individual identity (individual risk). When asked about the group risk posed by a threat (“How many Americans will die of COVID-19?”), conservatives focus on their national pride and underestimate the risk of contracting the virus compared to liberals. However, when asked about individual risk from the same threat (“What is the probability of an individual dying of COVID-19?”), conservatives focus on individual mortality threat and overestimate the risk of succumbing to the virus compared to liberals. Three national surveys support the IRP model.