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Estimating the Effects of Educational System Consolidation: The Case of China’s Rural School Closure Initiative

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  • Emily Hannum
  • Xiaoying Liu
  • Fan Wang

Abstract

Global trends of fertility decline, population aging, and rural out-migration are creating pressures to consolidate school systems, with the rationale that economies of scale will enable higher-quality education to be delivered in an efficient manner, despite longer travel distances for students. Yet few studies have considered the implications of system consolidation for educational access and inequality outside of the context of developed countries. We estimate the impact of educational infrastructure consolidation on educational attainment, using the case of China’s rural primary school closure policies in the early 2000s. We use data from a large household survey covering 728 villages in seven provinces and exploit variation in villages’ year of school closure and children’s ages at closure to identify the causal impact of school closure. For girls exposed to closure during their primary school ages, we find an average decrease of 0.60 years of schooling by 2011, when children’s mean age was 17 years old. Negative effects strengthen with time since closure. For boys, there is no corresponding significant effect. Different effects by gender may be related to greater sensitivity of girls’ enrollment to distance and greater responsiveness of boys’ enrollment to quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Emily Hannum & Xiaoying Liu & Fan Wang, 2021. "Estimating the Effects of Educational System Consolidation: The Case of China’s Rural School Closure Initiative," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 485-528.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/711654
    DOI: 10.1086/711654
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuanyuan Zhu & John Aloysius Zinda & Qin Liu & Yukuan Wang & Bin Fu & Ming Li, 2023. "Accessibility of Primary Schools in Rural Areas and the Impact of Topography: A Case Study in Nanjiang County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Liu, Xiaoyu & Chen, Boou & Zhang, Jinhua, 2024. "Peer effects of local students on the human capital of migrant children in middle schools: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Hannum, Emily & Wang, Fan, 2022. "Fewer, better pathways for all? Intersectional impacts of rural school consolidation in China’s minority regions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Zachary Parolin & Emma K. Lee, 2021. "Large socio-economic, geographic and demographic disparities exist in exposure to school closures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 522-528, April.
    5. Zhenchao Zhang & Weixin Luan & Chuang Tian & Min Su & Zeyang Li, 2021. "Spatial Distribution Equilibrium and Relationship between Construction Land Expansion and Basic Education Schools in Shanghai Based on POI Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Xie, Gang & Zhang, Lei, 2022. "Effects of school closure on household labor supply: Evidence from rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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