The Effects of At-Scale Career Pathway Investments on the Transition from High School to College

In this study, we examine the impact of a large-scale effort in California aimed at establishing career pathways and estimate its causal effects on community college enrollment. By leveraging a discontinuous assignment rule for awarding grant funds, we obtain credibly causal estimates of a $500 million initiative to expand career and technical education (CTE) pathways between K–12 districts and community colleges. The competitive grant application process used a standardized rubric, and those receiving a score above a predetermined threshold were awarded funding (i.e., treatment group) while those just below received no funding (i.e., control group), allowing for a regression discontinuity design. We found no overall enrollment increases at partner community colleges for successful grantees. However, there were suggestive enrollment increases of 13.5 percent to 14.8 percent in the CTE health sector, which was the primary career sector targeted for expansion. Other targeted programs, such as manufacturing and information communication technology, saw no increases in postsecondary enrollment. The health sector enrollment increases were concentrated among female students, aligning with earlier findings on reduced high school dropout rates for female students. These findings suggest that K–12 postsecondary partnerships may be a viable avenue for aligning enrollment with high-growth sectors.