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Generalized Pareto Fit to the Society of Actuaries’ Large Claims Database

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  • Ana Cebrián
  • Michel Denuit
  • Philippe Lambert

Abstract

This paper discusses a statistical modeling strategy based on extreme value theory to describe the behavior of an insurance portfolio, with particular emphasis on large claims. The strategy is illustrated using the 1991–92 group medical claims database maintained by the Society of Actuaries. Using extreme value theory, the modeling strategy focuses on the “excesses over threshold” approach to fit generalized Pareto distributions. The proposed strategy is compared to standard parametric modeling based on gamma, lognormal, and log-gamma distributions. Extreme value theory outperforms classical parametric fits and allows the actuary to easily estimate high quantiles and the probable maximum loss from the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Cebrián & Michel Denuit & Philippe Lambert, 2003. "Generalized Pareto Fit to the Society of Actuaries’ Large Claims Database," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 18-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:7:y:2003:i:3:p:18-36
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2003.10596098
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    Cited by:

    1. Nurulkamal Masseran & Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari, 2021. "Mixed POT-BM Approach for Modeling Unhealthy Air Pollution Events," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Klein, Nadja & Denuit, Michel & Lang, Stefan & Kneib, Thomas, 2013. "Nonlife Ratemaking and Risk Management with Bayesian Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013045, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    3. Sonia Benito & Carmen López-Martín & Mª Ángeles Navarro, 2023. "Assessing the importance of the choice threshold in quantifying market risk under the POT approach (EVT)," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-31, March.
    4. Gbari, Kock Yed Ake Samuel & Poulain, Michel & Dal, Luc & Denuit, Michel, 2016. "Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: a case study based on individual ages at death," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Wang, Yinzhi & Hobæk Haff, Ingrid & Huseby, Arne, 2020. "Modelling extreme claims via composite models and threshold selection methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-268.
    6. Conte, Marc N. & Kelly, David L., 2018. "An imperfect storm: Fat-tailed tropical cyclone damages, insurance, and climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 677-706.
    7. Michael R. Powers & Thomas Y. Powers & Siwei Gao, 2012. "Risk Finance for Catastrophe Losses with Pareto‐Calibrated Lévy‐Stable Severities," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(11), pages 1967-1977, November.
    8. Arthur Charpentier & Emmanuel Flachaire, 2021. "Pareto Models for Risk Management," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 355-387, Springer.

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