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A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality

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  • Bruce Jones

Abstract

This paper presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. The approach is individual rather than the aggregate traditionally used in analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but later may move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable “risk level” random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained by using this model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Jones, 1998. "A Model for Analyzing the Impact of Selective Lapsation on Mortality," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 79-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:79-86
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.1998.10595677
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    Cited by:

    1. Jir^o Akahori & Yuuki Ida & Maho Nishida & Shuji Tamada, 2020. "The Thermodynamic Approach to Whole-Life Insurance: A Method for Evaluation of Surrender Risk," Papers 2012.09606, arXiv.org.
    2. Valdez, Emiliano A. & Vadiveloo, Jeyaraj & Dias, Ushani, 2014. "Life insurance policy termination and survivorship," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 138-149.
    3. Hoermann, Gudrun & Ruß, Jochen, 2008. "Enhanced annuities and the impact of individual underwriting on an insurer's profit situation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 150-157, August.
    4. Nadine Gatzert & Gudrun Hoermann & Hato Schmeiser, 2009. "The Impact of the Secondary Market on Life Insurers’ Surrender Profits," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 887-908, December.
    5. Barsotti, Flavia & Milhaud, Xavier & Salhi, Yahia, 2016. "Lapse risk in life insurance: Correlation and contagion effects among policyholders’ behaviors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 317-331.
    6. Valdez, Emiliano A., 2001. "Bivariate analysis of survivorship and persistency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 357-373, December.
    7. Kwon, Hyuk-Sung & Jones, Bruce L., 2008. "Applications of a multi-state risk factor/mortality model in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 394-402, December.

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