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Application of particle swarm optimization and robust net present value for BOT-type contracts

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  • Soheil Emamian
  • Seyed Gholamreza Jalali Naini
  • Kamran Shahanaghi

Abstract

Major infrastructure construction projects contracted to private companies by governments are important for maximizing profitability. This paper extends an existing build–operate–transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) for identifying the reasonable concession period which would be profitable both to the government and to the private sector. There are some major limitations with BOTCcM – for example, the total investment cost is pre-given and the impact of uncertainty of parameters affecting the concession period were not considered. In this research, the total investment cost is assumed as variable which should be optimally determined and the uncertainty of net cash flows is considered. Further, the proposed model is implemented to calculate the robust concession period and required capital for the construction period, using the obtained values and particle swarm optimization method.

Suggested Citation

  • Soheil Emamian & Seyed Gholamreza Jalali Naini & Kamran Shahanaghi, 2017. "Application of particle swarm optimization and robust net present value for BOT-type contracts," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 901-913, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:40:y:2017:i:8:p:901-913
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2017.1355884
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    Cited by:

    1. Pleskachev, Yury (Плескачев, Юрий) & Ponomarev, Yury (Пономарев, Юрий), 2017. "Import Price Rigidity and Invoice Currency in Russia [Валюта Контракта И Жесткость Цен На Импортные Товары В России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 80-99, June.

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