Transition pathways for North Africa to meet its (intended) nationally determined contributions ((I)NDCs) under the Paris Agreement: a model-based assessment

This study applies a scenario-based analysis to assess the sustainability of energy transitions of the North African economies under the Paris Agreement, by evaluating the specific pace of the transition grounded in the reality of the actual regional constraints. The ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ modelling platform is used to simulate the impact of energy and climate policies set in the context of the global low-carbon transition on North Africa’s current energy system and economies. Two scenarios are developed: the reference and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution scenarios. A cost–benefit analysis is performed to ensure this transition can be cost-effective and to suggest recommendations for an efficient and effective transition to a low carbon economy. Results show that decarbonization in North Africa can be achieved at the regional scale, at negative costs, but significant upfront capital investments and intensive energy policy reforms are needed.Key policy insights In order for North African countries to meet their Paris Agreement commitments, further steps need to be taken by the international community to accelerate low-carbon technology transfer and the provision of financial resources to them.Policies for energy efficiency and renewable energy development should include the establishment of a regional market to develop and harmonize policies and legal frameworks in North Africa.Regional energy market integration and network interconnections would allow economies of scale, cost savings and the development of regional expertise.Policies for energy efficiency should also include reforms to phase out or reduce fossil fuel subsidies, mandatory energy audits for the buildings sector, and minimum energy performance standards for appliances, such as air conditioners and refrigerators.