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Olympic medals and demo-economic factors: Novel predictors, the ex-host effect, the exact role of team size, and the “population-GDP” model revisited

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  • George Vagenas
  • Eleni Vlachokyriakou

Abstract

► Olympic team size (athletes) is the best single mediator–predictor of Olympic medals share. ► Best determinants are growth rate, unemployment, health expenditures, ex-host, and population. ► Growth rate, unemployment, and health expenditures are novel determinants. ► Labor force and inflation do not constitute significant determinants of Olympic success. ► The “population-GDP” model is lacking completeness in explaining the number of Olympic medals won.The present study revisited the problem of estimating Olympic success by critical demo-economic indicators. The sample consisted of the 75 winner countries at the Athens 2004 Olympic Games (not previously analyzed). Medal totals were log-linearly regressed on land, population, GDP, urban population, inflation, growth rate, unemployment, labor force, health expenditures, ex-host, and team size. Multiple regression assumptions were tested with proper diagnostics including collinearity. Olympic team size was the best single predictors of Olympic medals (R2 = 0.690, p

Suggested Citation

  • George Vagenas & Eleni Vlachokyriakou, 2012. "Olympic medals and demo-economic factors: Novel predictors, the ex-host effect, the exact role of team size, and the “population-GDP” model revisited," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 211-217, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rsmrxx:v:15:y:2012:i:2:p:211-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.smr.2011.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Schlembach, Christoph & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Wunderlich, Linus, 2022. "Forecasting the Olympic medal distribution – A socioeconomic machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Yun Hyeong Choi & Qingyuan Wei & Luyao Zhang & Seong-Jin Choi, 2022. "The Impact of Cultural Distance on Performance at the Summer Olympic Games," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.

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