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Estimating and Explaining Changes in Potential Growth in South Africa

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Abstract

Estimates of potential output growth in SA have declined from over 3% prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to just over 2% currently. A similar slowdown has been experienced in several other countries, including most members of the G20. The purpose of this paper is to (i) estimate SA's level of potential output growth both before and after the GFC using a multivariate filter technique and (ii) attempt to explain the apparent decline in the growth potential by investigating the underlying drivers of potential GDP growth using a Cobb-Douglas- type production function. It is found that potential growth has declined to around 2.2% post-GFC. It is also determined that the biggest driver of the post-crisis decline in potential growth has been lower productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Kemp & B. Smit, 2016. "Estimating and Explaining Changes in Potential Growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 21-38, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:40:y:2016:i:3:p:21-38
    DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2016.12097302
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    Cited by:

    1. Byron Botha & Franz Ruch & Rudi Steinbach, 2018. "Shortlived supply shocks to potential growth," Working Papers 8605, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Kasyanenko,Sergiy & Kenworthy,Philip George & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Ruch,Franz Ulrich & Vashakmadze,Ekaterine T. & Wheeler,Collette Mari, 2023. "The Past and Future of RegionalPotential Growth : Hopes, Fears, and Realities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10368, The World Bank.
    3. Cobus Vermeulen, 2023. "The inherent uncertainties in output gap estimation a South African perspective," Working Papers 11051, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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