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The Macro-Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

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  • L L Ellis
  • B W Smit
  • P Laubscher

Abstract

The macro-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years is investigated by means of a macro-econometric model of the South African economy. The analysis is based on a set of HIV/AIDS inclusive and exclusive demographic projections for South Africa for the period up to 2015. The paper provides a detailed description of the various macro-economic channels of impact, the assumptions required to generate the model simulations, the macro-economic results and a sensitivity analysis of the main assumptions. The results suggest that although HIV/AIDS is expected to have a marked impact on macro-economic conditions in South Africa, the impact is not likely to be devastating to longer-term growth and development.

Suggested Citation

  • L L Ellis & B W Smit & P Laubscher, 2003. "The Macro-Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 1-28, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:27:y:2003:i:2:p:1-28
    DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2003.12106345
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    Cited by:

    1. L.l. Ellis, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Hiv/Aids On Small, Medium And Large Enterprises1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 682-701, December.
    2. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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