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Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates

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  • Andrea Monti
  • Sven Drefahl
  • Eleonora Mussino
  • Juho Härkönen

Abstract

Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage—individuals registered but not living in a country—is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Monti & Sven Drefahl & Eleonora Mussino & Juho Härkönen, 2020. "Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 74(3), pages 451-469, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:451-469
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219
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    Cited by:

    1. Debora Pricila Birgier & Christer Lundh & Yitchak Haberfeld & Erik Elldér, 2022. "Movers and Stayers: A Study of Emigration from Sweden 1993–2014," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1033-1064, December.
    2. Eleonora Trappolini & Cristina Giudici, 2021. "Gendering health differences between nonmigrants and migrants by duration of stay in Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(7), pages 221-258.
    3. Bruno Schoumaker & Louise Caron & Wanli Nie & Mireille Le Guen, 2022. "Multiple (il)legal pathways: The diversity of immigrants' legal trajectories in Belgium," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(10), pages 247-290.
    4. Wooseong Kim, 2024. "Overqualification Among Second-Generation Children of Immigrants in the Swedish Labour Market," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 1-47, December.
    5. Jonathan Lindström & Eleonora Mussino & Livia Sz. Oláh, 2022. "Childbearing among Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden: an origin-destination country approach," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 133-155, March.
    6. Julia Callaway & Cosmo Strozza & Eleonora Mussino & Sven Drefahl & Ilya Kashnitsky, 2024. "Mortality inequalities at retirement age between migrants and non-migrants in Denmark and Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 50(18), pages 473-502.
    7. Eleonora Mussino & Bruno Santos & Andrea Monti & Eleni Matechou & Sven Drefahl, 2024. "Multiple systems estimation for studying over-coverage and its heterogeneity in population registers," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5033-5056, December.

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