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The nexus between internal and external macroeconomic imbalances: evidence from Egypt

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  • Omneia Helmy
  • Chahir Zaki

Abstract

This paper examines the nexus between internal and external imbalances of the Egyptian economy. In fact, both the twin-deficit hypothesis (TDH) and the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) paradox are examined. Using quarterly data (between 2002 and 2014) in order to capture the short-term dynamics that might affect the Egyptian economy, a Granger causality test and an error-correction model are run in order to determine both the short-term adjustment and the long-run relationship between internal and external imbalances. Our main findings show that the TDH is rejected and a reversed causality running from the current account to the budget deficit exits. Moreover, the FH puzzle is partially rejected since Egypt, while not being perfectly integrated in the world capital market, has a high degree of capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Omneia Helmy & Chahir Zaki, 2017. "The nexus between internal and external macroeconomic imbalances: evidence from Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 198-232, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:198-232
    DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1368217
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah El-Khishin & Jailan El-Saeed, 2021. "The Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Do Geopolitics Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-17, September.
    2. Dissou, Yazid & Nafie, Yousra, 2021. "On the link between current account and fiscal imbalances in the presence of structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Egypt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 15-27.
    3. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Phillips in A Revolution: Unemployment and Prices in Early 21st Century Egypt," Working Papers hal-03948605, HAL.
    4. Amira Akl Ahmed, 2018. "Bank-Based Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time-Varying Causality Analysis for Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 123-135, April.

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