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Understanding the Chinese stock market: international comparison and policy implications

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  • Zhenya Liu
  • Shixuan Wang

Abstract

The definitions of the bear, sidewalk and bull markets are ambiguous in the existing literature. This makes it difficult for practitioners to distinguish between different market conditions. In this paper, we propose statistical definitions of the bear, sidewalk and bull markets, which correspond to the three states in our hidden semi-Markov model. We apply this analysis to the daily returns of the Chinese stock market and seven developed markets. Using the Viterbi algorithm to globally decode the most likely sequence of the market conditions, we systematically find the precise timing of the bear, sidewalk and bull markets for all the eight markets. Through the comparison of the estimation and decoding results, many unique characteristics of the Chinese stock market are revealed, such as ‘crazy bull’, ‘frequent and quick bear’ and ‘no buffer zone’. In China, the bull market is more volatile than in developed markets, the bear market occurs more frequently than in developed markets, and the sidewalk market has not functioned as a buffer zone since 2005. Possible causes of these unique characteristics are also discussed and implications for policy-making are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenya Liu & Shixuan Wang, 2017. "Understanding the Chinese stock market: international comparison and policy implications," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 441-455, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:repsxx:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:441-455
    DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2017.1384616
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Qing & Gan, Jingyun & Wang, Shuwan & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2019. "The effects of trading suspensions in China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Wang, Shixuan & Gupta, Rangan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2021. "Bear, Bull, Sidewalk, and Crash: The Evolution of the US Stock Market Using Over a Century of Daily Data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2019. "Decoding the Australian electricity market: New evidence from three-regime hidden semi-Markov model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 129-142.

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