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State Executions, Deterrence, and the Incidence of Murder

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  • Paul R. Zimmerman

Abstract

This study employs a panel of U.S. state-level data over the years 1978–1997 to estimate the deterrent effect of capital punishment. Particular attention is paid to problems of endogeneity bias arising from the non-random assignment of death penalty laws across states and a simultaneous relationship between murders and the deterrence probabilities. The primary innovation of the analysis lies in the estimation of a simultaneous equations system whose identification is based upon the employment of instrumental variables motivated by the theory of public choice. The estimation results suggest that structural estimates of the deterrent effect of capital punishment are likely to be downward biased due to the influence of simultaneity. Correcting for simultaneity, the estimates imply that a state execution deters approximately fourteen murders per year on average. Finally, the results also suggest that the announcement effect of capital punishment, as opposed to the existence of a death penalty provision, is the mechanism actually driving the deterrent effect associated with state executions.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul R. Zimmerman, 2004. "State Executions, Deterrence, and the Incidence of Murder," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 163-193, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:7:y:2004:i:1:p:163-193
    DOI: 10.1080/15140326.2004.12040607
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brett Parker, 2021. "Death Penalty Statutes and Murder Rates: Evidence From Synthetic Controls," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 488-533, September.
    2. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.
    3. Patrick T Brandt & Tomislav V Kovandzic, 2015. "Messing Up Texas?: A Re-Analysis of the Effects of Executions on Homicides," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Dale Cloninger & Roberto Marchesini, 2006. "Execution moratoriums, commutations and deterrence: the case of Illinois," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(9), pages 967-973.
    5. Paul R. Zimmerman, 2006. "Estimates of the Deterrent Effect of Alternative Execution Methods in the United States: 1978–2000," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(4), pages 909-941, October.
    6. Michelle Trawick & Roy Howsen, 2006. "Crime and community heterogeneity: race, ethnicity, and religion," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 341-345.
    7. Yang, Bijou & Lester, David, 2008. "The deterrent effect of executions: A meta-analysis thirty years after Ehrlich," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 453-460, September.
    8. Robert B. Ekelund & John D. Jackson & Rand W. Ressler & Robert D. Tollison, 2006. "Marginal Deterrence and Multiple Murders," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 521-541, January.
    9. Richard Berk, 2005. "New Claims about Executions and General Deterrence: Déjà Vu All Over Again?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(2), pages 303-330, July.
    10. Joanna M. Shepherd, 2004. "Murders of Passion, Execution Delays, and the Deterrence of Capital Punishment," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 283-321, June.
    11. Michael Frakes & Matthew Harding, "undated". "The Deterrent Effect of Expansions in Death Penalty Eligibility Criteria," Discussion Papers 08-033, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Choe, Jongmook, 2009. "Another Look at the Deterrent Effect of Death Penalty," MPRA Paper 14071, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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