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Identifying structural changes and regime switching in growing and declining inbound tourism markets in Australia

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  • Abbas Valadkhani
  • Barry O'Mahony

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic changes in the number of tourists arriving in Australia from 53 markets using monthly data (1991m1–2014m4). A modified capital asset pricing model incorporating Markov switching and Bai–Perron search models is adopted to measure the extent to which individual arrival series exhibit systematic co-movements in relation to total arrivals as a global composite barometer. The study identifies 15 large and growing markets from different countries and regions with the switching/shifting betas greater than +1, suggesting a diverse portfolio that, if properly managed, will continue to sustain Australia's tourism industry. The study presents a series of marketing and promotion strategies to improve marketing efficiency and implications for further research are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas Valadkhani & Barry O'Mahony, 2018. "Identifying structural changes and regime switching in growing and declining inbound tourism markets in Australia," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 277-300, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:21:y:2018:i:3:p:277-300
    DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2015.1072504
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Siddiqui, Aaliyah & Ahmad, Shabbir & Jiao, Zhilun, 2023. "Financial development as a new determinant of energy diversification: The role of natural capital and structural changes in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Yi-Chung Hu, 2023. "Tourism combination forecasting using a dynamic weighting strategy with change-point analysis," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 2357-2374, July.
    3. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    4. Saroja Selvanathan & Maneka Jayasinghe & Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan, 2023. "Deteriorating Australia-China relations and prospects for the Australian tourism industry: A dynamic demand analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(8), pages 2012-2031, December.

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