Temporal Changes of Transit-Induced Gentrification: A Forty-Year Experience in Tokyo, Japan

This article proposes an inverted U-curve theory to represent the changes in transit-induced gentrification with increases in mass rapid transit (MRT) station density over time. A forty-year experience on the associations of proximity to MRT stations with college graduate ratios in Tokyo, Japan, was applied to test this theory using the spatial data of MRT stations and population censuses from 1970 to 2010. The college graduate ratio in a neighborhood was adopted to measure gentrification outcome and denoted a phenomenon of early-stage gentrification. Applying a geographic information system and regression methods, empirical results provide long-term evidence of transit-induced gentrification, indicate the critical role of MRT station density in gentrification, and support the inverted U-curve theory. The transit-induced gentrification levels initially increase and then decrease as MRT station densities increase over time. This trend is affected by the MRT station density, macroeconomic environment, and state policy. This research helps to further the understanding of temporal changes in transit-induced gentrification. The inverted U-curve theory needs further tests in cities operating historical MRT systems to verify its global applicability.