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Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market

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  • P. Smaga
  • M. Wiliński
  • P. Ochnicki
  • P. Arendarski
  • T. Gubiec

Abstract

We propose a new model of the liquidity-driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modelling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities markets to manage their liquidity demand and supply as driven by prudential requirements in a volatile environment. The network of interbank loans is dynamic and simulated every day. We show how the intrasystem cash fluctuations alone, without any external shocks, may lead to systemic defaults, and what may be a symptom of the self-organized criticality of the system. We also analyze the impact of different prudential regulations and market conditions on the interbank market resilience. We confirm that the central bank’s asset purchase programmes, limiting the declines in government bond prices, can successfully stabilize banks’ liquidity demands. The model can be used to analyze the interbank market impact of macroprudential tools.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Smaga & M. Wiliński & P. Ochnicki & P. Arendarski & T. Gubiec, 2018. "Can banks default overnight? Modelling endogenous contagion on the O/N interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 1815-1829, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:18:y:2018:i:11:p:1815-1829
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2018.1438641
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    Cited by:

    1. Morteza Alaeddini & Julie Dugdale & Paul Reaidy & Philippe Madiès & Önder Gürcan, 2021. "An Agent-Oriented, Blockchain-Based Design of the Interbank Money Market Trading System," Post-Print hal-03447648, HAL.
    2. Morteza Alaeddini & Philippe Madiès & Paul J. Reaidy & Julie Dugdale, 2023. "Interbank money market concerns and actors’ strategies—A systematic review of 21st century literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 573-654, April.
    3. Sotoudeh Mollashahi, Vahideh & Talebi, Mohammad & Rastegar, Mohammad Ali & Mojab, Ramin, 2020. "Does One Size Fit All? The Impact of Liquidity Requirements on Bank\'s Insolvency: Evidence from Iranian Listed Banks," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 181-197, April.
    4. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    5. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Fiche, Marcelo Estrela & Braz, Tércio, 2021. "Citation likelihood analysis of the interbank financial networks literature: A machine learning and bibliometric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).

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