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Monetary policy and the exchange rate


  • Paul Dalziel


This paper analyses the implications of uncovered interest parity for departures of the exchange rate from purchasing power parity as a result of temporary policy-induced changes in the domestic interest rate. The analysis produces a precise formula for the relationship, which suggests that exchange rate movements caused by monetary policy are small relative to the size of swings in the value of the New Zealand dollar during the 1990s. Thus it is both wrong to hold the Reserve Bank responsible for these swings in the past and unrealistic to expect monetary policy to eliminate such swings in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Dalziel, 2002. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 199-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:199-207 DOI: 10.1080/00779950209544370

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fisher, Lance A. & Fackler, Paul L. & Orden, David, 1995. "Long-run identifying restrictions for an error-correction model of New Zealand money, prices and output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 127-147, February.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    3. Fisher, Lance A, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-358, December.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters,in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    8. Jordi GalĂ­, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    11. Paul Conway, 1998. "Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: An SVAR study," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-186.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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