IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

A microsimulation study of the effect of concurrent partnerships on the spread of HIV in Uganda

Listed author(s):
  • Martina Morris
  • Mirjam Kretzschmar
Registered author(s):

    This paper examines the potential impact of concurrent partnerships on HIV spread in Uganda using microsimulation. We represent a population of individuals, the sexual partnerships that they form and dissolve over time, and the spread of an infectious disease as a stochastic process. Data from the 1994 Ugandan sexual network survey are used to establish baseline outcomes, and the baseline is compared to sequential monogamy, increased concurrency and increased number of partnerships. The observed level of concurrency raises the number of infected cases by about 26% at the end of 5 years compared to sequential monogamy. Increasing both the number of partnerships and the rate of concurrency together has a stronger impact than increasing either alone. If risk behaviors were slightly higher at the start of the Ugandan epidemic, concurrency may have amplified the prevalence of HIV by a factor of 2 or 3. The public health implications are that data must be collected properly to measure the levels of concurrency in a population, and that messages promoting “one partner at a time”; are as important as messages promoting fewer partners.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Mathematical Population Studies.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 109-133

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:109-133
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525478
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    Order Information: Web:

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:109-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.