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Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong

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  • Ashima Goyal
  • Abhishek Kumar

Abstract

Arvind Subramanian argues indicators like growth in export, import and private credit predict India’s growth before 2011 but fail to do so after the 2011 change in GDP estimation methodology, implying growth was overestimated post 2011. We find, however, these indicators underestimate growth before 2011 too, and also either overestimate or underestimate growth in a large number of countries. His empirical design is therefore flawed. His regressions cannot be used for predicting growth or for concluding growth is overestimated or for pointing to problems in the GDP estimation methodology. His subsequent more heuristic defence against widespread criticisms is also flawed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2020. "Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:29-52
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2019.1660390
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    1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2020. "A DSGE Model-Based Analysis of the Indian Slowdown," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-38, April.
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. repec:ind:igowpp:2018-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Goyal, Ashima & Kumar, Abhishek, 2018. "Active monetary policy and the slowdown: Evidence from DSGE based Indian aggregate demand and supply," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 21-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Subramanian, 2019. "Validating India's GDP Growth Estimates," CID Working Papers 357, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Sinha Roy,Sutirtha & Van Der Weide,Roy, 2022. "Poverty in India Has Declined over the Last Decade But Not As Much As Previously Thought," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9994, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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