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Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong

Author

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  • Ashima Goyal
  • Abhishek Kumar

Abstract

Arvind Subramanian argues indicators like growth in export, import and private credit predict India’s growth before 2011 but fail to do so after the 2011 change in GDP estimation methodology, implying growth was overestimated post 2011. We find, however, these indicators underestimate growth before 2011 too, and also either overestimate or underestimate growth in a large number of countries. His empirical design is therefore flawed. His regressions cannot be used for predicting growth or for concluding growth is overestimated or for pointing to problems in the GDP estimation methodology. His subsequent more heuristic defence against widespread criticisms is also flawed.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2020. "Indian growth is not overestimated: Mr. Subramanian you got it wrong," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:29-52
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2019.1660390
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Subramanian, 2019. "Validating India's GDP Growth Estimates," CID Working Papers 357, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Sinha Roy, Sutirtha & Van der Weide, Roy, 2022. "Poverty in India Has Declined over the Last Decade But Not As Much As Previously Thought," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9994, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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