Section 2. Background and dynamics of the scenarios

This section contains a description of the dynamics leading to the three Riskworld scenarios. It comprises an introduction and four subsections: 1. Following a brief introduction, we reflect on the history of risk perception and management, using this to explore the changing meaning of risk, and to highlight the importance of considering social context when thinking about risk. 2. We then explain recent attempts to conceptualise risk as a dynamic concept, alongside the growing appreciation of the developing context of bewildering complexity. It is suggested that a new risk paradigm is emerging. 3. The context of bewildering complexity and increasing uncertainty, as we go on to show, results from a combination of many different forces. We highlight four key drivers of change: ” Increasing global interconnectivity ” The atomisation of society ” Ability to monitor and measure ” Technology 4. Our current environment introduces and increases our awareness of new types of risk - but traditional riskmanagement tools are struggling to cope with them. 5. There is a need, in many cases, to think of risk as a holistic and dynamic concept and about risk management in a way that highlights resilience and adaptive management. 6. We go on to outline the range of factors and critical uncertainties that might influence societal risk perception and management over the next 20 years.