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Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Its Variation, as an Example of a Before–After Study

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  • Andrew Gelman
  • Zaiying Huang

Abstract

Incumbency advantage is one of the most widely studied features in American legislative elections. In this article we construct and implement an estimate that allows incumbency advantage to vary between individual incumbents. This model predicts that open-seat elections will be less variable than those with incumbents running, an observed empirical pattern that is not explained by previous models. We apply our method to the U.S. House of Representatives in the twentieth century. Our estimate of the overall pattern of incumbency advantage over time is similar to previous estimates (although slightly lower), and we also find a pattern of increasing variation. More generally, our multilevel model represents a new method for estimating effects in before–after studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Gelman & Zaiying Huang, 2008. "Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Its Variation, as an Example of a Before–After Study," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 103(482), pages 437-446, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlasa:v:103:y:2008:i:482:p:437-446
    DOI: 10.1198/016214507000000626
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    Cited by:

    1. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: costs of political misalignment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115214, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2021. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: costs of political misalignment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118902, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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