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Nonlinear effects of exchange rate changes on the South African bilateral trade balance

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  • Bernard Njindan Iyke
  • Sin-Yu Ho

Abstract

In testing for the J-curve, previous studies have shown that the trade balance model is better fitted using cointegration and error correction mechanisms. These mechanisms are able to incorporate the short-term deterioration and the long-term improvement of the trade balance – the definition of the J-curve. However, the drawback of the established cointegration and error correction frameworks is that they assume symmetry in the equilibrium adjustment process. Incidentally, studies which have used the linear frameworks have found little support for the J-curve. Since the adjustment process could be nonlinear, a fresh investigation of the J-curve using nonlinear approaches could provide competing evidence. This paper retested the J-curve by using quarterly data for South Africa and her key trade partners (China, Germany, India, Japan, the UK and the USA) and found the linear specification to support the J-curve phenomenon in only two cases (India and the USA) under relaxed conditions. In contrast, the nonlinear specification supported the J-curve phenomenon in all cases at no cost of serial correlation and functional misspecification. We also found the real exchange rate changes to have significant nonlinear effects on the South African trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate changes on the South African bilateral trade balance," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 350-363, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:27:y:2018:i:3:p:350-363
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2017.1378916
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaya KEHO, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Trade Balance in WAEMU Countries: Evidence from Panel Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 5(2), pages 1-22.
    2. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    3. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Real Output And Oil Price Uncertainty In An Oil Producing Country," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(2), pages 163-176, July.
    4. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    5. Cong, Shufeng & Chin, Lee & Kumarusamy, Risidaxshinni, 2024. "Does Trade Freedom Affect Exchange Rate Movement? A perspective of High-Technology Trade," MPRA Paper 126888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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