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An agent-based evaluation of impacts of transport developments on the modal shift in Tehran, Iran

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  • Ali Shirzadi Babakan
  • Abbas Alimohammadi
  • Mohammad Taleai

Abstract

Changes in travel modes used by people, particularly reduction of the private car use, is an important determinant of effectiveness of transportation plans. Because of dependencies between the choices of residential location and travel mode, integrated modelling of these choices has been proposed by some researchers. In this paper, an agent-based microsimulation model has been developed to evaluate impacts of different transport development plans on choices of residential location and commuting mode of tenant households in Tehran, the capital of Iran. In the proposed model, households are considered as agents who select their desired residential location using a constrained NSGA-II algorithm and in a competition with other households. In addition, they choose their commuting mode by applying a multicriteria decision-making method. Afterwards, effects of development of a new highway, subway and bus rapid transit (BRT) line on their residential location and commuting mode choices are evaluated. Results show that despite the residential self-selection effects, these plans result in considerable changes in the commuting mode of different socio-economic categories of households. Development of the new subway line shows promising results by reducing the private car use among the all socio-economic categories of households. But the new highway development unsatisfactorily results in increase in the private car use. In addition, development of the new BRT line does not show significant effects on the commuting mode change, particularly on decrease in the private car use.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Shirzadi Babakan & Abbas Alimohammadi & Mohammad Taleai, 2015. "An agent-based evaluation of impacts of transport developments on the modal shift in Tehran, Iran," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 230-251, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:230-251
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2014.994656
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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Mahmoudzadeh & Asghar Abedini & Farshid Aram, 2022. "Urban Growth Modeling and Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Analysis in a Metropolitan Area (Case Study: Tabriz)," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Hamid Mostofi & Houshmand Masoumi & Hans-Liudger Dienel, 2020. "The Association between the Regular Use of ICT Based Mobility Services and the Bicycle Mode Choice in Tehran and Cairo," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-19, November.

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